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Q and A with John Burns, Port of Coos Bay CEO

 

You are the CEO for the Port of Coos Bay. Before you came to Oregon you were the Executive Vice President and General Manager for Hornbeck Offshore Services, which operates primarily in the Gulf of Mexico. What were your duties at Hornbeck? Were you and Hornbeck involved in the clean-up of BP's Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010?

 

While working at Hornbeck Offshore Services I held total P & L responsibility for a fleet of ocean going vessels that worked in both domestic US and foreign trade in the oil and gas sector. I remained at HOS until early 2010 and left to start my own consulting firm.

 

When the Deepwater Horizon incident happened in April of 2010, I worked with British Petroleum as a consultant, along with a team of folks that had accountabilities for management of the vessels that had been brought in to assist in the response effort. I worked on the spill response and clean-up efforts for about two years. At that time, Hornbeck was one of the companies that provided vessels for the response, but I was not working as a member of HOS management.

 

This is your third year as CEO of the Port of Coos Bay. Canada's Pembina Pipeline Corporation has spent more than $200 million planning to build Jordan Cove, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project in Coos Bay. Pembina's investment in Jordan Cove is expected to be close to $10 billion -- or twice the amount that Amazon is investing in its second U.S. corporate headquarters. Do you think Oregon residents understand the scale of Pembina's proposed investment for the south Oregon coast? And is Jordan Cove going to happen? Will construction begin in 2019, as planned?

 

It is hard to believe, but you are right -- I am in my third year here at the Port of Coos Bay, and it has been a very busy and transformative time. The Jordan Cove LNG enterprise has been a long time in the making. This venture began over a decade ago, and there has been a tremendous amount of time, effort, energy and money expended to make it a reality. I do want to remind people that the Jordan Cove facility was originally designed as an LNG import facility, due to our nations need for more natural gas at that time. Since Jordan Cove was first initiated, North America has become one of the top natural gas production areas in the world, and demand has continued to grow in Asian markets for the LNG produced here.

 

Unfortunately, I suspect that many people are either totally indifferent, influenced by hyperbole, or hold intractable positions, losing sight of what benefits will result from the creation of a business of this size in this region, the state, and the country. People tend to look only to those elements that are tangible, such as "how many full-time family wage jobs will be created," and don't bother to understand the benefits of helping to alleviate the tax burden that is felt by individuals. They also fail to see that a business like Jordan Cove can be the first step in re-invigorating the economy of a rural area that has, up until this point, been left behind. I truly believe that Jordan Cove will have a snowball effect resulting in further economic development in the Coos Bay area, benefitting Oregon as a whole.

 

It is my opinion and belief that Jordan Cove will happen. There is a great need globally for natural gas. The LNG product that originates in western Colorado and Canada is among the lowest cost in the market. The delivery time from North America to Asia is most expeditious from the Pacific Northwest, which makes LNG shipped from Coos Bay even more attractive.

 

From what I understand, we are now looking to the 2nd Quarter of 2019 for a FERC determination on the facility and pipeline. If that holds up, and it is as I suspect a positive outcome, it would seem logical that we will see construction start late 2019, early 2020.

 

In 2016 during the Obama administration, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which has jurisdiction over siting new liquefied natural gas terminals, rejected Jordan Cove's application. In November of this year, a remade FERC under President Trump is expected to rule again on what will now be Pembina's third application. Do you expect Pembina to get approval for Jordan Cove in the coming ruling?

 

As I have said many times, I believe that the green light will be given to Jordan Cove. However, regardless of which party holds the majority of commission seats, FERC is an agency with processes and procedures that will be followed. As a Port Authority, we deal with many federal, state and local agencies on a routine basis. These agencies, as well as the Port as a public entity, have an obligation to follow rules that provide the public with assurances that we are protecting their interest. That said, at times these processes and procedures can slow work flow to what seems to be a glacial pace.

 

In May 2017, Coos County voters rejected, by a margin of 76-24, a ballot measure that would have banned Jordan Cove. Yet in December of 2017, U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley came out in opposition to Jordan Cove. Meanwhile, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper said this about the pipeline: "Jordan Cove represents an important new source of demand for natural gas producers to continue to access markets for natural gas including the Asian Pacific countries which comprise the fastest growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) market in the world." What's going on here? Why the disconnect between these two, both Democrats?

 

I can't give you any real insight as to a difference in opinion and approach taken by Senator Merkley and Governor Hickenlooper. I can speak in some regards to Senator Merkley and Jordan Cove. While the Senator and I have different views of the effects of the pipeline and the Jordan Cove facility from an environmental standpoint, I think we both see the economic benefits. I will give the Senator credit for reaching out to stakeholders for their input prior to making his decision to express opposition to Jordan Cove. The Senator reached out to both Dave Kronsteiner, our Port Commission President, and myself to engage us in separate meetings to gain insight into our perspective on the benefits and drawbacks of situating this business here in Oregon. He was also forthright enough to call the night before his public statement to let us know about his position, even though it was not what we desired.

 

In response to Merkley's opposition to Jordan Cove, three Oregon county commissioners, Klamath's Derrick DeGroot, Douglas' Tim Freeman, and Coos' John Sweet wrote an op-ed in the Medford Mail Tribune. "The Jordan Cove liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal will provide U.S. allies in Asia with a cleaner form of energy while creating thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of permanent jobs in Southern Oregon and paying tens of millions of dollars in taxes to rural counties every year it operates." Have the commissioners won the argument against Sen. Merkley in Oregon and in Coos Bay about American natural gas being a better energy source for Asia than coal-burning power plants?

 

I believe that the Commissioners made their point quite well and articulated the great need that our rural communities have for the family wage jobs and taxes that Jordan Cove will bring. It is very hard to "win" arguments today as we tend to lock into positions and then shut down the opportunity to engage in discourse which could lead to a change of mind and or heart.

 

I believe that we tend to be disingenuous regarding how we in developed countries want others to conduct themselves when it comes to climate issues. On the one hand, we demand that they take action to reduce their emissions and improve air quality, yet we oppose opportunities to provide them with the resources to effect change.

 

350 Eugene is a non-profit whose mission statement revolves around climate change. But their claims about Jordan Cove go quite a bit further. They write, "The Jordan Cove project is WRONG for so many reasons: trampling the rights of landowners by use of eminent domain, damage to the Bay, and other ecosystems, leakage and spills into waterways and public lands, potential for fires explosions, trespassing on tribal lands, putting local jobs in fisheries, tourism, and other sectors at risk, pollutions and carbon emissions from the terminal -- the list goes on and on!"

 

And of course, they add that LNG is a fossil fuel and would send carbon into the atmosphere when it is burned by the end user.

 

From this laundry list of concerns from 350 Eugene, do any of them have merit or are they just throwing the "kitchen sink" at Jordan Cove, hoping something sticks with the public?

 

I think with everything that is done, you should always proceed with a certain level of concern that you are working to mitigate the potential for any kind of adverse consequence. However, often you will encounter individuals or groups that will turn to fear-mongering in an attempt to sway opinion. I think that the areas which you have pointed out that 350 Eugene has proffered are just that.

 

First, let's start with the issue of eminent domain. As far as I know, there have not been any properties that have been affected by the exercise of any form of eminent domain by the Jordan Cove facility or associated pipeline. While a positive FERC decision could empower Pembina with that ability, I know that every effort will be made to come to an amicable agreement with property owners.

 

As to the environmental disaster that is being asserted as well as the adverse impact on current types and levels of employment, this is not steeped in any reasonable level of probability or likelihood.

 

I have heard from people that they are concerned that the facility will be sited on the North Spit, and that they are worried about what the impacts would be in the event of an earthquake or tsunami. I try to remind people of the cost of this facility and ask what company would invest $7 billion in a facility that would be subject to devastation in such an event. The extensive permitting and environmental review process Jordan Cove is subject to looks at these risk factors and countless others. This plant has been engineered to withstand the effects of such events and remain intact.

 

Oregonian reporter Ted Sickinger wrote this about the permitting process for Jordan Cove in November 2017.

 

"Last month, the Oregon Land Use Board of Appeals rejected Coos County's land use approval of the project, remanding it back to the county for further consideration.

 

"The Department of Geology and Mineral Industries weighed in last week with a stinging critique of the company's analysis of its earthquake and tsunami preparedness. And the Department of State Lands notified the company last week that its application for a removal fill permit was incomplete."

 

Gov. Brown remains neutral so far on Jordan Cove during this year's 2018 gubernatorial campaign despite the fact that her top contributor is a building trades political action committee which has given her $150,000 and supports Jordan Cove. Do you think the hostility reported above by state bureaucrats about Jordan Cove is still accurate or was it temporary and anecdotal? Will Gov. Brown eventually support Jordan Cove, or will the fate of the pipeline be determined by the winner of the 2018 Oregon governor's race.

 

This is a very interesting question, and one that is extremely difficult for me to answer. I do not have line of sight into the minds, motives, or actions of agencies or the individuals working there. I can say that I believe that every application and permit that is filed on behalf of Jordan Cove will receive a great deal of scrutiny and a demand that they be accurate and complete. As you are aware, there will be myriad legal challenges to every decision that is made. I think that the natural instinct for most people with the responsibility of signing off on these permits is to insure the defensibility of their decision.

 

As to Governor Brown, what I have learned in my discussions with her is that she is keenly aware of the plight of the folks who live and work here in southwest Oregon. She understands the need to improve our educational programs and the development of family wage jobs. She knows that jobs are the answer to many of our problems, but I couldn't say what kind of employment she deems acceptable. I can't provide any conjecture on what position she may take in the future regarding Jordan Cove as only time will tell.

 

Almost 30 percent of Coos County residents live below the poverty line, more than triple the number of Portland Metro residents living below the poverty line. The three rural country commissioners argued in the Medford Mail Tribune that: "While the Portland area benefits from multi-billion dollar investments from companies such as Intel and Nike and their suppliers, there's a political reality that people don't like to acknowledge: the urban rural divide is very real and actions like Senator Merkley's prove how real it is."

 

Can you describe what an investment of $10 billion would mean to South Coast, a region that has been economically depressed for decades, and why it is so necessary in helping fight rural poverty?

 

The construction and operation of a business of this magnitude will be a game changer for this region. This area has relied on the timber and fishing industries for centuries, and felt a tremendous economic blow with the dramatic decline of the timber industry in the late 1980s, early 1990s. The effects of the decline and its subsequent impacts were amplified by the fact that so much of our economy was riding on a single commodity. It has been, and will continue to be difficult to find our way forward without a diversification of industrial interest. Like I said before, the impact of new job opportunities (both short and long term), coupled with a robust tax base increase will give this area the boost it needs.

 

Besides Jordan Cove, what other projects are you working on for the Port of Coos Bay? What is your vision for the future of this region?

 

This is an exciting time here at the Port of Coos Bay. We continue to move forward with our efforts to deepen our navigation channel from 37 to 45 feet while widening from 300 to 400 feet. This will afford us the opportunity to accommodate much larger vessels in the near future, increasing our competitiveness in the global marketplace.

 

We continue to progress rehabilitative efforts on our 134-mile short line railroad. The Coos Bay Rail Line provides a crucial connection for local industry from the coast to Eugene where we tie in to the national Class I rail system. This is a critical part of the total composition of the Port since we aren't located on the I-5 corridor.

 

We have initiated a feasibility study to aid in the development of our marine dependent land holdings on the North Spit. Developing industrial marine infrastructure is essential to increase the region's ability to tie into the markets around the world.

 

As to our vision of the future, it is the same as it has been for over a decade -- this Port is the economic engine that drives the economy of southwest Oregon and the state. We are uniquely situated here on the coast. As the largest deep water coastal port between San Francisco and Seattle we are the best alternative to open Oregon to world markets. Our harbor is a mere 15 miles long and provides access to open seas in a matter of minutes. Our unique navigation channel is truly a gem for the state of Oregon that gives Coos Bay a tremendous advantage over other locations throughout the West Coast.

 

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Metro's Affordable Housing Measure

Too much money and a high risk of mismanagement and failure

By Dr. Eric Fruits

 

Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to reform the country's social welfare programs. "We put a crazy amount of dough into our social benefits and poor people are still poor," Mr. Macron told his advisers in a video clip of a meeting released on Twitter earlier this month.

 

The same could be said for the Portland's affordable housing efforts. Efforts that are so scattershot and costly that one local newspaper noted, "As the city's problem with affordable housing has evolved into a full-blown crisis, city officials have embraced the time-honored tactic of throwing s--t against the wall and seeing what sticks."

 

Metro, the Portland area regional government, is heading up the latest scattershot and costly effort, a $652.8 million bond measure. Money from the bond "could" fund the building of affordable housing, the rehabilitation of existing affordable housing, or the purchase of land for "immediate or future" construction of affordable housing (a practice known as "land banking").

 

This measure will authorize Metro to issue $652.8 million in general obligation bonds to provide affordable housing for low-income families, seniors, veterans and people with disabilities in the Metro region, which includes Washington, Clackamas and Multnomah counties. Metro will use the bond funds for its affordable housing program, and will work cooperatively with local housing providers to provide them with bond funds to build affordable housing for low-income households, to purchase and rehabilitate existing housing to preserve its affordability and prevent displacement, and to buy land for the immediate or future construction of new affordable housing.

 

"Could." That's the word Metro uses. It's a weasel word. It's especially weasely in Metro's pitch for the bond.

 

To be sure, the construction of new affordable housing will add to the housing stock. On its face, that's a good thing: More housing, more affordable housing. Just ignore the fact that Metro's $652.8 million checkbook will introduce a new behemoth bidder for scarce residential land, driving up land prices for other potential builders.

 

The real problem comes in Metro's intention to use the bond money to purchase and rehab existing housing. In other words, a big chunk of the money could be spent to buy existing housing, without adding a single new affordable unit.

 

Buried in the text of the measure, Metro hints that some of the money, "without limitation" would be spent on "grocery, coffee shop ... and other commercial, office and retail uses." In other words, Metro is selling the bond as an affordable housing measure when it's really a play to get the regional government into the property development business on the backs of taxpayers.

 

Metro estimates the bond funds would preserve or create as many as 3,200 affordable units that would serve up to 12,000 people. They estimate the cost of the new projects funded by the bond at $253,186 per unit. Preservation and renovation of existing housing is estimated at $225,180 per unit. Take out the administrative costs and the spending on coffee shops, groceries, and other commercial projects, and it seems clear that Metro's numbers don't add up. Private developers indicate they can build affordable units at half the cost of Metro's projections. Metro can't seem to explain its sky-high cost estimates.

 

Metro has never been in the affordable housing business. In fact, the measure itself clearly states, if approved by voters, the measure will "create" an affordable housing function for Metro. If voters sign this $652.8 million check, they'll be handing hundreds of millions of dollars to an agency that has no idea what it's doing or how it's going to spend that money.

 

Metro promises administrative costs will not exceed five percent of bond funds. That amounts to about $2 million a year, or 15-20 new public employees and PERS members. They'll need that staff because Metro has zero experience with affordable housing.

 

Metro has a history of failing the Portland region on housing supply. It's made only incremental additions to the Urban Growth Boundary for housing, instead focusing on its unstated policy of Density at Any Cost. Some of the expansions that Metro approved were insufficient to satisfy housing demand, or in the case of Damascus, they were complete failures.

 

The regional government has a history of financial mismanagement. A recent Oregonian editorial reports a 2016 audit exposed serious defects in how Metro manages its planning and spending on capital projects, including those covered by a 2013 operating levy. The editorial notes the audit concluded managers moved capital projects along without adequate planning or approved budgets. They overspent without going through channels for approval, misreported expenditures, rerouted money from one project to another, and, in one case, spent $215,000 over an 18-month period on a project before it had even been approved. The audit noted, "There were gaps in leadership and decision-making at all levels of the organization for some projects."

 

Remember, those were projects in which Metro claimed expertise. The regional government has no expertise in affordable housing.

 

The Portland region is in an affordable housing crisis -- a crisis that was in many ways caused by Metro's disdain for expanding the Urban Growth Boundary to increase the supply of housing. Metro's bond measure is too much money with too little impact, and a high risk of mismanagement and failure.

 

The Summer of Love

By Jacob Vandever

 

On June 27, the U.S. Supreme Court declared mandatory union agency fees for public sector employees unconstitutional in their ruling on Janus v. AFSCME. Justice Alito delivered the opinion, overturning the precedent set in Abood v. Detroit Board of Education.

 

"States and public-sector unions may no longer extract agency fees from nonconsenting employees. The First Amendment is violated when money is taken from nonconsenting employees for a public-sector union; employees must choose to support the union before anything is taken from them," wrote Justice Alito.

 

In Oregon, "Paycheck Protection" measures intended to prevent money collected using public resources from going to certain political purposes were on the ballot in 1998, 2000, and 2008, failing to pass by less than 2 percent of the vote in 2008. Now the U.S. Supreme Court has effectively done for Oregon what the voters were not quite able to do themselves. Every state in the country, including Oregon, is now a "Right to Work" state.

 

Commenting on the decision, Freedom Foundation CEO Tom McCabe said, "For more than four decades, unions and the politicians whose pockets they line have exploited a loophole in Abood v. Detroit Board of Education that recognized the right of government employees to opt out of union representation, while forcing them to pay for it anyway. Today, the justices finally righted that wrong." McCabe was featured as the Q&A for this newsletter in March and spoke extensively on the decision and its merits.

 

This ruling is a devastating blow to the public sector unions in Oregon who wield tremendous political power with public employee dollars. Public sector unions are some of the largest political givers in the state, the vast majority of those dollars going to Democratic candidates and causes.

 

In his public statement Jeff Klatke, Oregon AFSCME president said, "No Supreme Court case can take away our collective voice and power. We know that our members are committed to their union. We will stand together and face this challenge, united and determined to fight for every Oregon AFSCME member."

 

Oregonians, particularly public employees, can expect a rough and tumble summer, as union executives are expected to pull out all the stops to prevent massive financial bleeding from their political coffers. The fall elections raise the stakes even higher, and both sides of this issue will be jockeying for legal position. With political tensions already polarized and elevated to the boiling point, don't expect this to be a "Summer of Love" in Oregon politics.

 

"Experience has taught us the unions aren't going to start following the law tomorrow just because the Supreme Court says it has to. They're going to lie to their members, suppress their rights, and file dozens of frivolous lawsuits to avoid compliance. Meanwhile, the Freedom Foundation will continue the battle on every front to protect the right of government workers to free themselves from union bondage," said McCabe.

 

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Choice or Coverage?

By Philip J. Romero

 

The GOP took Congress and the White House in the last election by running against the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) mandate that every American must have health insurance. Several likely 2020 Democratic presidential candidates are arguing for a "public option," where individuals could choose to enroll in a government-sponsored single-payer health insurance policy. In their own ways each wants to offer greater choice in health coverage.

 

Nothing is more American than freedom of choice. On the surface more choice -- to buy into single-payer as Bernie Sanders advocates, or opt out of mandated insurance entirely as the House Freedom Caucus has repeatedly voted -- sounds appealing. But both ideas strike at the heart of the insurance model that has financed health care in the U.S. for most of a century.

 

Insurance is a textbook example of what economists call "asymmetrical information." In most transactions (say, the sale of a used car) the seller knows more than the buyer, so the buyer must hedge against the prospect that the car is a lemon. In insurance the asymmetry runs the other way: You know your medical situation far better than your insurer. Those most likely to buy insurance are the sickest: economists call this "adverse selection." Insurers can hedge against individual lemons by covering a large number of customers and counting on statistics to average out (regress to the mean). But the law of large numbers isn't a sufficient hedge against adverse selection, where many healthy opt out, and large numbers of sicker policyholders opt in.

 

The short history of the ACA is a case in point. Over 10 million new customers purchased subsidized insurance under the new law. Insurers lost money in the early years due to adverse selection -- the new enrollees were sicker than insurers expected. As night follows day, they sky rocketed premiums to make up losses.

 

A skeptic might argue that the ACA mandate prevented adverse selection, because everyone was obliged to buy insurance, sick or well. It could, but the mandate lacked teeth. In the early years the tax penalty for noncompliance was much less than the cost of even subsidized insurance. Many healthy young people (Obamacare's key targets) opted out.

 

Financing health care through insurance, whether paid by employers or government, is a 20th century legacy of which I am very skeptical. It is no accident that some of the areas whose prices are rising fastest -- like health care and higher education -- are those where the end customer only pays a small part of the bill. Reform attempts to enhance subsidies simply drive a bigger wedge between customer and provider, accelerating price increases.

 

When third parties (insurers) pay for health care, price does not ration use, which leads to relentless demand and rapid inflation -- 3x the consumer price index. In most other areas (transportation, home ownership, disability), we insure only against catastrophic loss, not routine misfortune.

 

But for the present we are stuck with insurance-based health financing: no serious health reform proposal has challenged it. As long as health insurance remains sacrosanct, customers have an asymmetry advantage over insurers, and insurers will compensate through eye-popping premium increases.

 

Liberals' war on choice has lately been buttressed by behavioral economics that has found numerous instances where human beings act irrationally, acting against their own interests. This new field has justified much paternalism in the name of "nudging." But the argument against choice does not come only from the left.

 

Choice may be pure Americana, but it runs afoul of insurance principles. The GOP is wrong in rejecting the ACA's mandate. And Democrats are definitely wrong in pushing a public option.

 

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